Understanding Patterns: Escalation

Another pattern that it is useful to recognize as you put the pieces of your dream together is escalation. To me, escalation brings to mind growing up at the end of the Cold War where world military superpowers completed for nuclear supremacy. Ironically, it resulted in there being enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world several times over. But escalation affects more than just world conflict. Escalation is a common pattern that affects many of us in everyday situations, like family quarrels, price wars and legal battles.

The pattern of escalation is what happens when two or more competitors observe the actions of the other and look to 'one-up' or outperform the other. What usually happens is that both competitors find themselves in a place that they would never have viewed as acceptable at the beginning of the competition. The pattern can result in a destructive cycle which consumes resources for very little benefit.  

The escalation pattern, when drawn, looks like two cycles which intersect at the point where a decision is made to 'one-up' the other. The cycles feed off of each other in a Figure-8 pattern.

There are two ways to stop the escalation pattern. The first one is to de-couple the two cycles that are feeding off of each other.  This is something that can be imposed upon competitors such as when quarrelling children are separated by a parent or when a mediator is assigned to contract negotiations which have broken down. 

The same effect can also result when one of the competitors chooses to de-couple from the other. Interestingly, it only takes one of the competitors to de-couple to end the escalation. For example, someone in a quarrel may decide to listen and respect the other's point of view rather than continuing the argument or retaliating. An ancient teaching calls this 'turning the other cheek'. 

Once the cycles are de-coupled, the competitors tend to return to actions in line with their individual purposes and the senseless escalation ends.

The second way to stop the escalation pattern is for the two competitors to join together around a shared purpose. This tends to be a riskier path but it can result in benefits for both the competitors. For example, two organizations who are competing to move into a new area may decide to embark upon a shared venture instead. This is an example of a both-and strategy rather than an either-or strategy that we talked about in the post on Polarity Thinking. 

It is possible to avoid escalation as we walk into our dream by remaining true to our personal vision and core values, even in the face of competition, and by trying to build shared purpose, wherever possible, with those around us.  

Note: the 'escalation' pattern is one of eight common systems archetypes in systems thinking.

Breaking Points

Have you ever reached a point when you feel like you just can't go on.  Maybe your dream is in pieces. Or you realize that you are going around in circles and are back to where you started, again. Or even worse, you have run headlong into a brick wall that you knew was coming and thought that you had taken steps to avoid this time. You are at a breaking point and it is an important moment for you and your dream.

You may wonder, what can strategy do at this point? The answer is nothing, unless we are willing to act on it. At breaking points, there are a lot of unproductive things that are revealed that we need to get rid of - like blame, excuses, rationalization and escapes. As the internal pressure increases it usually gets harder and harder to resist the unproductive path we may have taken many times before.

When I think of breaking points, a scene from the Disney movie, Bambi, comes to mind. A young quail is hiding as hunters approach. They know that they are not supposed to flush but the pressure builds and builds until they finally give in and burst into flight. Within seconds they are shot and killed by one of the hunters. 

You can view the short clip here.

Breaking points test our character and our capacity to carry our dreams through to completion. They are characterized by thinking that says, 'I just can't take it anymore!' The question to ask is why? Why can't you take it anymore? What is coming to the surface in you? What is the worst thing that is going to happen if you continue to not give into your internal pressure?

It is difficult to face our breaking points without some type of an anchor, like our personal vision or core values, to keep us steady through the process. The other thing that is essential is perseverance. As we persist, and keep our eyes on our higher purpose, the things that we thought we could never do, the obstacles that we thought we could never get past, get challenged and revealed for what they are. 

Eventually, the whole concept of a breaking point itself gets challenged. Breaking points are usually self-imposed and self-perpetuated. As we give less and less room to 'I can't do it anymore' thinking, we become more prepared to put the pieces of our dream together. 

Scenario Planning: Planning for Success

Dreams often start small and grow slowly. That is the normal pattern of growth. But after a while, it is easy to think that your dream will remain small for ever. The planning for success strategy is the right strategy to prepare the way for a dream that you have been carefully tending to grow to the next level. 

The planning for success strategy uses the principles of scenario planning to imagine alternative expressions of how your dream might turn out. Here is how it works. 

First, imagine at least three different ways your dream could grow to exceed your expectations. Stretch yourself to have at least one of the scenarios represent incredible success to you. Don't worry in this step about how the success will occur. Focus instead on what success in different forms would look like. Write the scenarios down and give them names. 

It is important to imagine more than one scenario for success. Having only one scenario will be limiting to the growth of your dream. 

Second, look at your dream as it is now through the future pictures of success that you have imagined. What new things would you have to put in place so your dream as it is now could accommodate the success you imagined? And what things are you doing now that you would have to stop doing or do a different way? Write these down for each of the scenarios. 

Recognize that the things that you are writing down in this step will make no sense if you look at the future picture of success through the current reality of your dream. They will only make sense if you look back from the future at the present. 

Third, pick several things that you have written down that you could change with little to no additional investment of your time or resources. Do not worry if what you are proposing to do seems out-of-scale to your dream as it is now. Just make sure that you are not over-investing your time or resources. Create a plan to put those things into action (write it down) and act on it over the next few weeks. If you have been carefully tending your dream this far, it will be exciting to add these additional steps to what you have been doing. Watch for the sense of possibility that starts to rise up within you.  

Scenario planning is a powerful strategy to imagine and shape the future when we are willing to invest ourselves deeply in the process - something that I need to do in a few areas of my life. I will let you know how it goes. 

Note: This week's blog was inspired by stories written by George MacDonald, a Scottish author who lived from 1824 to 1905. George MacDonald was considered a mentor to C.S. Lewis, the author of the Narnia series. Many of George MacDonald's best loved characters dreamed of and planned for their dreams long before they had the resources to accomplish it. Once the opportunity was realized they were able to make a rapid and lasting impact.